Skip to content
sciencelab
0
0
0 XP
Lvl 1
KJ
Lesson 5 ~35 min Unit 4 · Data Science 2 +85 XP

Evidence, Reasoning and Conclusions

Your plants grew taller in bright light. That is a result. But how do you turn that result into a conclusion you can actually defend, and not claim more than your data shows?

Today's hook: A group measures three trays of seedlings: in low light they reach 4 cm, in medium light 7 cm, and in bright light 11 cm after two weeks. One student writes "bright light is best for all plants everywhere". Another writes "in this test, seedlings grew taller as light increased, from 4 cm to 11 cm". Both looked at the same numbers, but only one conclusion is actually supported by the data. The difference between them is the most important skill a young scientist can learn: matching what you claim to exactly what your evidence shows.
0/5QUESTS
Think First
warm-up

A student tests how the drop height of a ball affects its bounce. At 20 cm it bounces 12 cm, at 40 cm it bounces 25 cm, and at 60 cm it bounces 37 cm. They conclude: "Balls always bounce higher when dropped from higher."

Is that conclusion fully supported by the data? What part of it goes further than the evidence allows?

Write your prediction in your book before reading on.
1
Claim, Evidence and Reasoning
+5 XP

A strong scientific conclusion has three connected parts, often called CER. The claim is your answer to the investigation question, a short statement of what you found. The evidence is the specific data from your investigation that backs up the claim, the actual measurements, not a feeling. The reasoning is the sentence or two that explains why that evidence supports the claim, linking the two together.

Think of it like a courtroom. The claim is what you are trying to prove, the evidence is the exhibits you point to, and the reasoning is the lawyer explaining how the exhibits prove the case. Leave out the evidence and it is just an opinion. Leave out the reasoning and the reader has to guess how your numbers connect to your claim. All three together make a conclusion you can defend.

The Three Parts of a Strong Conclusion CLAIM Your answer to the question "Seedlings grew taller with more light." EVIDENCE The data that backs up the claim "4 cm, 7 cm and 11 cm at rising light levels." REASONING Why the evidence supports the claim "Height rose each time light rose." Claim + Evidence + Reasoning = a conclusion you can defend
Example

Claim: Warmer water dissolves sugar faster. Evidence: At 20°C the sugar took 90 s to dissolve, at 40°C it took 55 s, and at 60°C it took 30 s. Reasoning: The dissolving time fell each time the temperature rose, so the data shows a clear link between higher temperature and faster dissolving.

Real-world anchor

When the Bureau of Meteorology reports that a region is drying out, it does not just say "it feels drier". It states the claim, points to the evidence (rainfall totals falling over decades), and gives the reasoning (each decade's average sits below the last). Naming all three is what makes the statement trustworthy.

Watch out

A claim on its own is not a conclusion, it is just an opinion until you attach the evidence and the reasoning. "Bright light is best" with no numbers behind it would not convince any scientist.

In the CER structure, which part is the actual data from your investigation?
2
What You'll Master
objectives

Know

  • A conclusion is built from a claim, evidence and reasoning.
  • Evidence is specific data, not a feeling or a guess.

Understand

  • How data from an investigation becomes evidence for a claim.
  • Why reasoning is needed to link the evidence to the claim.

Can Do

  • Write a conclusion that uses claim, evidence and reasoning.
  • Judge whether a conclusion is well supported or overreaches the data.
Syllabus link (NESA Science 7–10, Data science 2): "Explain the evidence and reasoning used to support conclusions about claims, using data from investigations" (outcomes SC5-DA2-01, SC5-WS-06).
Cross-lesson links: The fair-test data you collected in Lessons 2 and 3 is the evidence you reason from here. The skill of not overreaching a conclusion also protects you in Lesson 6, where you judge how reliable and valid your evidence really is.
3
Words You Need
vocabulary
ClaimA short statement that answers the investigation question.
EvidenceThe specific data from an investigation used to support a claim.
ReasoningThe explanation of how and why the evidence supports the claim.
ConclusionA claim that is justified by evidence and reasoning together.
DataThe raw measurements or observations collected during an investigation.
OverreachingClaiming more than the data actually shows.
SupportedA claim is supported when the evidence and reasoning clearly back it up.
4
Spot the Trap
heads-up

Wrong: A conclusion is just whatever you believe after the experiment.

Right: A conclusion is a claim backed by specific evidence and clear reasoning.

Wrong: "The plants grew well" counts as evidence.

Right: Evidence is the numbers, such as "4 cm, 7 cm and 11 cm".

Wrong: If a result is clear, you can drop the reasoning.

Right: Reasoning tells the reader exactly how the evidence proves the claim.

Wrong: One test of one plant type proves a rule for all plants.

Right: A conclusion should stay within what was actually tested.

Spot the slip-up+5 XP

A student writes three sentences in a conclusion. One of them is not supported by the data, click it.

The data: salt was added to water and the boiling time was measured. 0 g took 300 s, 10 g took 280 s, 20 g took 265 s.
  1. Adding more salt lowered the boiling time, from 300 s down to 265 s.
  2. The boiling time fell each time more salt was added.
  3. At 100 g of salt the water would not boil at all.
5
Building a CER Conclusion, Worked Example
+5 XP

Let's build one from real data. The question was: "Does the amount of light affect the height of bean seedlings after two weeks?" Three trays were grown under low, medium and bright light, with everything else kept the same. The measured heights were 4 cm (low), 7 cm (medium) and 11 cm (bright). Now turn that into a conclusion using all three CER parts.

Claim: "In this investigation, bean seedlings grew taller as the amount of light increased." Evidence: "Seedlings reached 4 cm in low light, 7 cm in medium light and 11 cm in bright light." Reasoning: "Because the height rose each time the light increased, and light was the only thing changed, the data supports the claim that more light led to taller seedlings in this test." Notice how the claim names the trend, the evidence gives the actual numbers, and the reasoning ties them together while staying inside what was tested.

Seedling Height vs Amount of Light (after 14 days) Height (cm) 4 cm Low light 7 cm Medium light 11 cm Bright light
Example

A weak version of the same conclusion would be: "Light is good for plants." It has no evidence and no reasoning, so a reader cannot check it. The strong version names the trend, quotes the heights, and explains the link, which is what makes it a real conclusion rather than a slogan.

Real-world anchor

Scientists at the CSIRO testing a new crop write conclusions the same way: claim ("variety X yielded more"), evidence (the tonnes-per-hectare figures), and reasoning (how the figures compare under the same conditions). A reviewer can then check every step.

Watch out

Do not let your reasoning quietly add a cause you did not test. Here you can say more light went with taller seedlings, but you have not proven light is the only possible reason unless every other variable was truly kept the same.

True or false?
"Light is good for plants" is a strong conclusion because it states a clear claim.
6
Strong Evidence, Weak Evidence and Not Overreaching
+5 XP

Not all evidence is equally strong. Strong evidence comes from a fair test, uses repeated measurements, and shows a clear pattern. Weak evidence might be a single reading, come from a test where other variables changed too, or show no real pattern. The stronger your evidence, the further your claim can safely go, but only so far. A conclusion overreaches when it claims more than the data shows, for example saying a result is true for everyone, everywhere, forever, after testing it once on one sample.

Good scientists keep their conclusion tied tightly to what they actually measured. From the seedling test you can say "in this test, more light went with taller seedlings". You cannot say "all plants need bright light", because you tested one plant type, in one place, for two weeks. Staying inside your data is not being weak, it is being honest about what the evidence can support.

Supported vs Overreaching Conclusions SUPPORTED Stays inside what was tested Names the actual conditions "In this 2-week test, these seedlings grew taller in more light." vs OVERREACHING Claims beyond the data Everyone, everywhere, forever "All plants everywhere need bright light to grow."
Example

One student drops a ball three times from 50 cm and gets bounces of 31, 32 and 30 cm. That repeated, consistent reading is strong evidence for the bounce at 50 cm. A single drop measured once, with the ruler held crookedly, would be weak evidence for the same claim.

Real-world anchor

When health researchers report a new finding, they are careful to say exactly who was studied, "in this group of 200 adults", not "in everyone". Reporters who drop those limits and write "this cures everything" are overreaching the evidence, which is how science gets misreported.

Watch out

Words like "always", "never", "everyone" and "proves" are warning signs in a conclusion. One investigation rarely proves anything for all cases, so swap those words for what you actually observed in your test.

A class tested one brand of battery in one toy car. Which conclusion overreaches the data?
7
Checking a Conclusion Against the Data
+5 XP

Before you trust any conclusion, run it through three quick checks. One: does the evidence actually match the claim, are the numbers really pointing the way the claim says? Two: does the reasoning explain the link, or does it just repeat the claim? Three: does the claim stay inside what was tested, or does it leap to "everyone" and "always"? A conclusion that passes all three is well supported.

This same checklist works on other people's claims too, including the ones you see online. When a headline says a food "boosts brain power", ask: what was the evidence, what was the reasoning, and does the claim go further than the data allows? Most exaggerated claims fail check three, they take a small, specific result and stretch it into a sweeping promise.

Example

Claim: "drinking the new sports drink makes you run faster". Evidence: 10 students ran 100 m slightly faster after drinking it. Check three fails if the conclusion becomes "this drink makes everyone faster at every sport", because only one short run, with a small group, was actually tested.

Watch out

A conclusion can have real evidence and still be unsupported if the reasoning does not connect them, or if it stretches past the test. Strong evidence does not excuse an overreaching claim, both parts have to hold up.

Predict then reveal+8 XP
1 · Predict
2 · Reveal
3 · Compare

A student tested one fern in low and bright light and concluded: "All houseplants grow faster in bright light." Which single check does this conclusion fail, and why?

50%
Speed round +6 XP

True or false? Tap as fast as you can. Build a streak.

Q · 1 / 6 Streak · 0 Score · 0

In CER, the evidence is the specific data from your investigation.

How are you completing this lesson?

Revisit Your Thinking
reflect

Think back to the bouncing ball at the start: 12 cm, 25 cm and 37 cm from heights of 20, 40 and 60 cm.

Write a supported conclusion using claim, evidence and reasoning, and explain which word in "balls always bounce higher" was overreaching.

Write your updated thinking in your book.
1
In CER, what is the "evidence"?
+10 XP
2
What is the job of the "reasoning" in a conclusion?
+10 XP
3
Seedlings reached 4, 7 and 11 cm under more light. Which conclusion overreaches?
+10 XP
4
Which of these is the strongest evidence?
+10 XP
5
Sugar dissolved in 90 s, 55 s and 30 s as water warmed. Which is the best conclusion?
+10 XP
Check Your Understanding
short answer

1. In your own words, explain the difference between the claim, the evidence and the reasoning in a conclusion.

Write your answer in your book.

2. Why is "the plants grew well" weak evidence, while "4 cm, 7 cm and 11 cm" is strong evidence for the same claim?

Write your answer in your book.

3. A student tests one type of paper plane once and concludes "longer wings always fly further". Explain why this conclusion overreaches the data.

Write your answer in your book.
Show Your Working
13 marks total
4 MARKS

SA1. Name the three parts of a CER conclusion, and describe the job of each one in a single sentence.

Write your answer in your book.
4 MARKS

SA2. Explain what it means for a conclusion to "overreach" the data, and give one example of an overreaching claim from a single small test.

Hint: Think about words like "always" and "everyone".

Write your answer in your book.
5 MARKS

SA3. Data: a toy car ran for 12 min, 16 min and 21 min on three battery brands tested in the same car. Write a full conclusion using claim, evidence and reasoning, and make sure it does not overreach.

Write your answer in your book.
Comprehensive Answers

Quick Check

1. B. The evidence is the specific data, the actual measurements collected.

2. C. Reasoning explains how the evidence supports the claim, linking data to answer.

3. D. "Every plant on Earth" stretches a single short test into a rule for all plants.

4. B. Repeated, closely agreeing readings from a fair test are the strongest evidence.

5. A. It states the claim, quotes the times as evidence, explains the link, and stays inside the test.

Show Your Working Model Answers

SA1 (4 marks): Claim, the short statement answering the question [1]. Evidence, the specific data that backs the claim [1]. Reasoning, the explanation of how the evidence supports the claim [1]. Together they form a conclusion you can defend [1].

SA2 (4 marks): Overreaching means claiming more than the data shows [1], such as saying a result is true for everyone or always [1]. Example: testing one drink on one class and concluding "this drink makes everybody run faster at every sport" [1], when only one short run with a small group was measured [1].

SA3 (5 marks): Claim: in this car, the third battery brand ran longest [1]. Evidence: the run times were 12 min, 16 min and 21 min for the three brands [1]. Reasoning: the third brand gave the longest time when tested in the same car, so the data supports it lasting longest here [1]. It does not overreach because it is limited to this car and these brands [1], rather than claiming the brand is best for every device [1].

R
Quick Review

Claim

Your answer to the question

Evidence

The specific data that backs it

Reasoning

Why the evidence supports the claim

Conclusion

Claim + evidence + reasoning

Overreaching

Claiming more than the data shows

Supported

Stays inside what was tested

Test Your Knowledge
+25 XP

Put what you have learned to the test! Jump through the questions in game form.

Play Game

Your Badges

0 of 6
First Steps
3-Day Streak
3 in a Row
Lesson Ace
Stretch Seeker
Daily Warrior

Mark lesson as complete

Tick when you've finished Learn, Practice and the game. Earns +85 XP and +25 coins.

Want help with Lesson 5, Evidence, Reasoning and Conclusions?

Work through this topic 1-on-1 with an experienced HSC tutor.

Book a free session →